doi: 10.17586/2226-1494-2016-16-6-1111-1119


EXPENSES FORECASTING MODEL IN UNIVERSITY PROJECTS PLANNING

S. A. Arustamov, A. P. Varenikova


Read the full article  ';
Article in Russian

For citation: Arustamov S.A., Varenikova A.P. Expenses forcasting model in university projects planning. Scientific and Technical Journal of Information Technologies, Mechanics and Optics, 2016, vol. 16, no. 6, pp. 1111–1119. doi: 10.17586/2226-1494-2016-16-6-1111-1119

Abstract

The paper deals with mathematical model presentation of cash flows in project funding. We describe different types of expenses linked to university project activities. Problems of project budgeting that contribute most uncertainty have been revealed. As an example of the model implementation we consider calculation of vacation allowance expenses for project participants. We define problems of forecast for funds reservation: calculation based on methodology established by the Ministry of Education and Science calculation according to the vacation schedule and prediction of the most probable amount. A stochastic model for vacation allowance expenses has been developed. We have proposed methods and solution of the problems that increase the accuracy of forecasting for funds reservation based on 2015 data.


Keywords: mathematical modeling, forecasting, multidimensional analysis, salary, vacation allowance

References

1. Wang C.-H., Huang Y.-C. A new approach to calculating project cost variance. International Journal of Project Management, 2000, vol. 18, pp. 131–138.
2. Sato T., Hirao M. Optimum budget allocation method for projects with critical risks. International Journal of Project Management, 2013, vol. 31, pp. 126–135. doi: 10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.04.002
3. Elkjaer M. Stochastic Budget Simulation. International Journal of Project Management, 2000, vol. 18, pp. 139–147.
4. Wang W.-C. Supporting project cost threshold decisions via a mathematical cost model. International Journal of Project Management, 2004, vol. 22, pp. 99–108. doi: 10.1016/S0263-7863(03)00046-2
5. Mavrotas G., Caloghirou Y., Koune J. A model on cash flow forecasting and early warning for multi-project programmes: application to the Operational Programme for the Information Society in Greece. International Journal of Project Management, 2005, vol. 23, pp. 121–133. doi: 10.1016/j.ijproman.2004.07.009
6. Cui Q., Hastak M., Halpin D. Systems analysis of project cash flow management strategies. Construction Management and Economics, 2010, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 361–376. doi: 10.1080/01446191003702484
7. Chou J.-S. Web-based CBR system applied to early cost budgeting for pavement maintenance project. Expert Systems with Applications, 2009, vol. 36, no. 2, pp. 2947–2960. doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2008.01.025
8. Bogatyrev V.D., Morozova S.A. Model and technique of investment project financing schedule optimization using work charts. Upravlenie Bolshimi Sistemami, 2011, no. 34, pp. 130–145.
9. Pavlov O.V. Models and mechanisms for a coherent project management of industrial companies. Upravlenie Bolshimi Sistemami, 2006, no. 15, pp. 185–201. (In Russian)
10. Matveev A.A., Novikov D.A., Tsvetkov A.V. Models and Methods of Project Portfolio Management. Moscow, PMSOFT Publ., 2005, 206 p.
11. Laslo Z. Project portfolio management: an integrated method for resource planning and scheduling to minimize planning/scheduling-dependent expenses. International Journal of Project Management, 2010, vol. 28, pp. 609–618. doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2009.10.001
12. Smirnova A.S., Semenov A.I. Application of factor analysis additive models for general household expenses of the university. Fundamental Research, 2014, no. 11-8, pp. 1776–1780.
13. Chernobrivaya N.A., Gladkova N.V. Methodological basis of the application of the costs, expenses, concepts in theory and practice. Baltiiskii Ekonomicheskii Zhurnal, 2010, no. 2, pp. 195–206.
14. Kendall M.G., Stuart A. The Advanced Theory of Statistics. London, Charles Griffin & Company Limited, 1945.
15. Hollander M., Wolfe D.A. Nonparametric Statistical Methods. 2nd ed. Wiley, 1999, 816 p.
 



Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
Copyright 2001-2024 ©
Scientific and Technical Journal
of Information Technologies, Mechanics and Optics.
All rights reserved.

Яндекс.Метрика