DOI: 10.17586/2226-1494-2016-16-6-1111-1119


EXPENSES FORECASTING MODEL IN UNIVERSITY PROJECTS PLANNING

S. A. Arustamov, A. P. Varenikova


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Article in Russian

For citation: Arustamov S.A., Varenikova A.P. Expenses forcasting model in university projects planning. Scientific and Technical Journal of Information Technologies, Mechanics and Optics, 2016, vol. 16, no. 6, pp. 1111–1119. doi: 10.17586/2226-1494-2016-16-6-1111-1119

Abstract

The paper deals with mathematical model presentation of cash flows in project funding. We describe different types of expenses linked to university project activities. Problems of project budgeting that contribute most uncertainty have been revealed. As an example of the model implementation we consider calculation of vacation allowance expenses for project participants. We define problems of forecast for funds reservation: calculation based on methodology established by the Ministry of Education and Science calculation according to the vacation schedule and prediction of the most probable amount. A stochastic model for vacation allowance expenses has been developed. We have proposed methods and solution of the problems that increase the accuracy of forecasting for funds reservation based on 2015 data.


Keywords: mathematical modeling, forecasting, multidimensional analysis, salary, vacation allowance

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