A model for determining the timing of modernization IT infrastructure of enterprises

Lomakin M.I., Dokukin A.V., Oltyan I.Yu., Niyazova Yu.M., Zlydnev I.M. A model for determining the timing of modernization of the IT infrastructure of enterprises. Scientific and Technical Journal of Information Technologies, Mechanics and Optics, 2026, vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 868–876 (in Russian). doi: 10.17586/2226-1494-2026-26-4-868-876

Current trends in the development of enterprises are directly related to the active introduction of Information Technology (IT) in all areas of their operation. IT today is not only a tool for collecting, processing and analyzing data, but also a leading factor in ensuring competitive advantages. Most enterprises understand the need and expediency of forming, maintaining, and modernizing an IT infrastructure that includes hardware, software, and a network connecting them into a single system of interaction. Currently, a significant number of large and medium-sized Russian companies need to modernize their IT infrastructure. This is due to the processes of functioning of companies, changes in the volume of work, sales, supplies, the number of employees, interactions with related parties, etc. At the same time, the processes of modernization of the IT infrastructure significantly lag behind the dynamics of changes in the fortunes of companies, which, as a rule, leads to inevitable losses. Due to the wear and tear of the elements of the IT infrastructure, the costs of maintaining them in working order, monitoring their technical condition, maintenance, and scheduled and unplanned repairs increase significantly. In this case, the task arises of determining the timing of the modernization of the IT infrastructure in terms of replacing its elements. Traditionally, this task is solved with known parameters of IT infrastructure modernization such as the uptime allocation function of its elements. The paper proposes a model for determining the timing of modernization of the IT infrastructure of enterprises in conditions when the initial information on the operating time for failure is represented by small samples. The scientific novelty of the work consists in obtaining a general solution to the problem of determining the timing of IT infrastructure modernization in conditions of incomplete data. The optimal time for upgrading the IT infrastructure is determined from the condition of maximizing the mathematical expectation of profit from its operation. The mathematical expectation of profit from the functioning of the IT infrastructure is based on the formula of full mathematical expectation for a complete group of events: an event identical to the fact that an element failure occurred (will occur) after the time of element replacement and an event identical to the fact that an element failure occurred (will occur) before the replacement time. The ratios for the mathematical expectation of profit are obtained with an exponential distribution of the uptime of an element of the IT infrastructure, the optimal value of the element replacement period is found, and it is shown that this value of the replacement period provides, precisely, the maximum value of the average profit. A ratio is obtained for the value of the lower estimate of the mathematical expectation of profit on a set of distribution functions with specified moments equal to the moments determined based on the initial sample of uptime. The problem of determining the optimal replacement time for an element of the IT infrastructure is formulated as the task of finding the maximum minimum of the mathematical expectation of profit, which is reduced to the problem of nonlinear one-dimensional programming. The model performance is demonstrated by the example of determining the timing of disk upgrades in a disk array using the HP EVA P6500 disk array as an example, TOPAZ Ethernet Switches. The results obtained can be used by specialists in assessing and optimizing the time frame for the modernization of the IT infrastructure.

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